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Early gambler’s prediction of Super Bowl winner for 2023 season

Here are the probabilities of each team winning the Super Bowl according to the betting odds from Caesars Sportsbook as of September 6, 2022:

  • Buffalo Bills: 14.29% (+600)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11.76% (+750)
  • Green Bay Packers: 8.33% (+1100)
  • Kansas City Chiefs: 8.33% (+1100)
  • Philadelphia Eagles: 8.33% (+1100)
  • San Francisco 49ers: 7.14% (+1300)
  • Denver Broncos: 5.88% (+1600)
  • Los Angeles Rams: 5.26% (+1800)
  • New York Jets: 5.26% (+1800)
  • Seattle Seahawks: 2.78% (+3500)
  • Baltimore Ravens: 2.63% (+3700)
  • Cleveland Browns: 2.63% (+3700)
  • Dallas Cowboys: 2.63% (+3700)
  • New Orleans Saints: 2.63% (+3700)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers: 2.63% (+3700)
  • Atlanta Falcons: 1.23% (+8000)
  • Chicago Bears: 1.23% (+8000)
  • Indianapolis Colts: 1.23% (+8000)
  • Minnesota Vikings: 1.23% (+8000)
  • Tennessee Titans: 1.23% (+8000)
  • Arizona Cardinals: 0.99% (+10000)
  • Houston Texans: 0.99% (+10000)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.99% (+10000)

As you can see, the Buffalo Bills had the highest probability of winning the Super Bowl according to the betting odds, followed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers, who are tied for second place. The Kansas City Chiefs, the Philadelphia Eagles, and the San Francisco 49ers are also among the top contenders, with more than 7% probability each.

However, these probabilities do not necessarily reflect the true strength of each team, as they are influenced by public perception, market demand, and other factors that may not be related to football performance. Therefore, it is possible that some teams are overrated or underrated by the betting odds.

For example, some experts may argue that the Kansas City Chiefs are underrated by the betting odds, as they are the defending champions and have one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Patrick Mahomes. On the other hand, some experts may argue that the Philadelphia Eagles are overrated by the betting odds, as they have a lot of question marks at key positions, such as quarterback, wide receiver, and offensive line.

After week 2 games however, LSR has a slightly different prediction as you can check here: 2023 NFL Playoff Picture – Playoff Odds & Scenarios After Week 1 (

Based on the latest odds, potential Super Bowl 58 matchups include the following: 

  • Chiefs vs. 49ers
  • Chiefs vs. Eagles
  • 49ers vs. Bills
  • Eagles vs. Bills  
  • Chiefs vs. Cowboys
  • Bills vs. Cowboys

Things will change week to week as most of these predictions will be thrown out the window. Ultimately, no one can predict with certainty who will win the Super Bowl, as there are many factors that can affect the outcome of each game, such as injuries, turnovers, penalties, weather, etc. That is why football is such an exciting and unpredictable sport.

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