Analytics STEM

Football is ON! Interesting NFL stats (2023 season)

Are you a fan of NFL (American Football)? Do you want to know the odds of your favorite team making the playoffs this season? Well, you are in luck, because we have some amazing stats for you. Based on the historical data from the past 23 seasons, here is what we found:

  • If your team started 0-2 there is a slim chance of making the playoffs— only 11.5% of the teams that started 0-2 made the playoffs since 2000.
  • Only the 1993 Dallas Cowboys, 2001 New England Patriots and 2007 Giants won a Super Bowl after starting 0-2.
  • If your team started 2-0, congratulations. You have a very high chance of making the playoffs, although it is not guaranteed. A whopping 64% of the teams that started 2-0 made the playoffs since 2000.
  • If your team started 1-1, you are in a good position too! You have a coin flip chance of making the playoffs, which is not bad at all. Exactly 50.4% of the teams that started 1-1 made the playoffs since 2000.
  • Since 2002, 99 teams have started 0-3. Just one of those teams (the 2018 Texans) has made it to the playoffs.

But what about the Super Bowl? How many losses can your team afford to have and still make it to the big game?

Based on the data from all the Super Bowl teams from 1966 to 2020, here is what we know:

  • The average number of losses of a Super Bowl team in the regular season is about 4. That means, on average, a team that made the Super Bowl lost about 4 games in the regular season and no more.
  • So, if your team lost four or fewer games in the regular season, they have a great chance to make it to the BIG GAME! Otherwise, you might want to make different plans for your SB party 🙂
  • As of 2023, there are 12 teams that have never won a Super Bowl. These include the Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Arizona Cardinals, Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Houston Texans.
  • The Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings are tied for the most Super Bowl appearances at 4 times without an actual victory (Bills came close to winning at times whereas Vikings lost big in the SB each time).

Here is a picture that illustrates the point that a 2-0 start is not a guarantee of making the playoffs. Here is Tampa Bay Buccaneers (yeah, Tom Brady was their QB) celebrating Super Bowl victory in 2020 season after 1-1 start whereas the Patriots starting their season at 2-0 missed the playoffs!

TB SB Victory 2020 | Tom Brady

I hope you enjoyed this blog post and learned something new. But remember, anything can happen in football! 😊

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