Back in March 2020, I did some predictive modeling using simple math and Excel where I presented 3 scenarios: Likely, Best-case, Worst-case. You can read the original blog here: What-If Models (COVID-19): Results
Let’s take a look at today’s latest data from WHO and compare my Model 1: Likely Scenario numbers. We’ll compare the USA numbers as my modeling were based on my observation of current social behaviors in the USA.
WHO Data as of 4/29/2020 for USA:
# of Cases: 983,457
# of Deaths (to-date): 50,492
Now, flashback to my Model 1 chart below:
My Model 1 Predictions:
# of Cases: between 622,800 to 942,805
# of Deaths (to-date): 50,213
I know, I had to double-take too! This is incredibly close to what’s occurring/occurred despite innumerable variables. However, you might think it’s just a coincidence and random guess. It’s not, this is the second time I’ve compared so far at different timeframes and both times, they were essentially spot-on. You can see the first time I compared in the blog here.
To recap:
# Cases to-date:
- Actual Cases to-date: 983,457
- My Prediction: between 622,800 to 942,805
# Deaths to-date:
- Actual Total Deaths to-date: 50,492
- My Prediction: 50,213
My Model 1 also sees a drop in cases from its day 100 (which is about 2 weeks from today).
Also note that in my modeling, 100% population or 1M (of hypothetical country of population 1 Million) will be infected by around 90 days. Which is exactly the trend we’re seeing in USA…approaching 1M cases very soon.
