How close were my initial models? Let’s compare with today’s data.
Take a look back on my educated-guess-but-not-official models that I created back in March 22, 2020: What-If Models (COVID-19): Results
Today’s numbers for USA from WHO are (on 4/1/2020): # of confirmed cases (infected): 163,199
and confirmed deaths: 2,850
My four models were agnostic to country or population at the time because I intentionally used the global data available at the time and normalized it enough to be generic. Now, take a look at how my “Model 1: Likely Scenario” from that blog fairs with today’s data…
Model 1 chart is shown here again (you can take a look at the original blog above to verify) and I’ve marked the key data points. As you can see, it is incredibly close to what we’re experiencing in USA as of date. The officials are predicting however far more number of deaths than in my models in the coming months! I sure hope they’re wrong! Let’s hope it stays within my Model 1 limits if not lower.
Do you believe in Science yet? How about in my models?